Monday, March 2, 2009

Interesting times we live in

I could probably use that for most every finacial blog title out there in the past 18 months.

I decided to paruse some of the major newspapers and news outlets including the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Los Angles Times, one of my local rags, the Chicago Tribune. Everything was 'Doom and Gloom' in the business sections. There was NO talk of a potential bounce in the headlines. Nothing about hope in government actions. Nada. Even someone I follow closely, Tim Knight, a devout Bear (not a perma-Bear. Not the same thing at all.) is starting to wonder if there is a bottom to this market.
That being said, next week, I am going long on everything. I figure: Give it couple of days. Let them shake out the last. Remove all thought of bounce/Bear Rally/Bull Market beginnings, any of it. Then, and only then, will we bounce.
Be warned, though, I am not abandoning my predictions. To go straight to them is insanity, not that something like that is impossible in this Market. However, it is highly unlikely. I would have to look and see if my 1000 prediction was in here. If it was, I am on the fence of supporting it. Obviously it won't be the March time frame I was originally thinking. That's just silly at this point. Once again, though, not impossible in the this Market, just highly unlikely.
If we did get that high, I would find money where ever I could to short the market for the longer term. Seriously, it would be worse than a gambling addiction. It would be my heroin. Once again, not holding my breath. Maybe, MAYBE 8500 on the Dow. That would be a reversal point that makes sense.
So, currently, I am sitting on a 1 Delta Russell (IWM) short, I decided to pick up the 66 March SPY put, and for poops and giggles, I have an AAPL call at 100 for Apr. The puts have made me some money. I put in my stops on them, though. If they go against me, I should at least break even, for what good that would do me. I have a stop on AAPL, but I am beginning to wonder if Theta is going to eat that one up.
Since my last writing, I have been eaten alive by this Market. Buying tops and selling bottoms. Sad and pathetic. Need a better system and a longer term. I don't trade professionally, and I need to start remembering that. Lost and wandering with money is a very, very dangerous thing. Mostly to your money. You'll live, unfortunately. You'll wish you were devoured whole, like your money. Especially if you have a signifcant other. :)
Until the next time I decide to haul my lazy butt over this blog...