I could probably use that for most every finacial blog title out there in the past 18 months.
I decided to paruse some of the major newspapers and news outlets including the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Los Angles Times, one of my local rags, the Chicago Tribune. Everything was 'Doom and Gloom' in the business sections. There was NO talk of a potential bounce in the headlines. Nothing about hope in government actions. Nada. Even someone I follow closely, Tim Knight, a devout Bear (not a perma-Bear. Not the same thing at all.) is starting to wonder if there is a bottom to this market.
That being said, next week, I am going long on everything. I figure: Give it couple of days. Let them shake out the last. Remove all thought of bounce/Bear Rally/Bull Market beginnings, any of it. Then, and only then, will we bounce.
Be warned, though, I am not abandoning my predictions. To go straight to them is insanity, not that something like that is impossible in this Market. However, it is highly unlikely. I would have to look and see if my 1000 prediction was in here. If it was, I am on the fence of supporting it. Obviously it won't be the March time frame I was originally thinking. That's just silly at this point. Once again, though, not impossible in the this Market, just highly unlikely.
If we did get that high, I would find money where ever I could to short the market for the longer term. Seriously, it would be worse than a gambling addiction. It would be my heroin. Once again, not holding my breath. Maybe, MAYBE 8500 on the Dow. That would be a reversal point that makes sense.
So, currently, I am sitting on a 1 Delta Russell (IWM) short, I decided to pick up the 66 March SPY put, and for poops and giggles, I have an AAPL call at 100 for Apr. The puts have made me some money. I put in my stops on them, though. If they go against me, I should at least break even, for what good that would do me. I have a stop on AAPL, but I am beginning to wonder if Theta is going to eat that one up.
Since my last writing, I have been eaten alive by this Market. Buying tops and selling bottoms. Sad and pathetic. Need a better system and a longer term. I don't trade professionally, and I need to start remembering that. Lost and wandering with money is a very, very dangerous thing. Mostly to your money. You'll live, unfortunately. You'll wish you were devoured whole, like your money. Especially if you have a signifcant other. :)
Until the next time I decide to haul my lazy butt over this blog...
Monday, March 2, 2009
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Another day, a little closer
Well, we had yet another up day on the markets. We are just that much closer to that elusive 914 on the S&P that will break us up and out of the duldrums that the Markets have been in.
I am still bullish, as my previous post mentioned, so riding out to the upside. I am hoping that Jan 4th will explode upward into the new year. It will all be a lie, but I don't tell the Markets what to do. (Whenever I try to, I seem to lose money...)
So, have a toast to the end of an abismal year, and drink to the beginning of a new, lower market year!!
P.S. I am still working on getting permissions for using charts, and graphs, with the circles and the arrows and the paragraphs on the back of each one, explaining what each one is and how it is to be used as evidence against a Bull Market. (Kudos to you if you know where that comes from!! Not counting you, Vodes.)
I am still bullish, as my previous post mentioned, so riding out to the upside. I am hoping that Jan 4th will explode upward into the new year. It will all be a lie, but I don't tell the Markets what to do. (Whenever I try to, I seem to lose money...)
So, have a toast to the end of an abismal year, and drink to the beginning of a new, lower market year!!
P.S. I am still working on getting permissions for using charts, and graphs, with the circles and the arrows and the paragraphs on the back of each one, explaining what each one is and how it is to be used as evidence against a Bull Market. (Kudos to you if you know where that comes from!! Not counting you, Vodes.)
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
The beginning of the end...
And so, I join the world of blogging as yet another investing site. Well, I guess the most important thing is that you talk about something you know about.
Well, lets get to it.
Markets closed up today. Not on great volume, but better than last week's. Tomorrow should be a busy day, I am expecting at least 50% average volume, most likely more. Tomorrow is the last day of the tax year. People are going to have to take their losses, or suck them up for next year. Also, today was the last day of Hanukkah. So, people of the Jewish persuasion are more likely to participate in the Markets. My thoughts are that tomorrow will end up flat to up decent. I am thinking another 15 on the S&P and about 120 on the Dow. My reasoning is that we are going for the 9000 on the Dow and the 918 on the S&P. We need to get over those hurdles by the 4th if we want to see a nice bounce in the Markets for the beginning of the year.
I have had the thought, and played my positions, to the idea that the Markets are going for at least 10 (10k on Dow, 1000 on S&P) with about a 10% margin of error to the upside. I am also playing the idea that the Market will resume its downward march either shortly after we hit that projected top and/or late Feburary to early March. This is when I think that President Obama is going to "clean out the closet" on the American economy.
Basically, my thinking is that Obama is going to tell people: "The economy is not at all in the condition that you think. It is much, much worse." He will do this for 2 reasons. 1) I think that the economy IS in fact worse than the government has let on (Disclaimer: This is a government thing, not some veiled slam on W. The government lies to us. Sorry, the government is "found to have accidentally misinformed us". This is far beyond party lines. They all do it, but that is a whole different blog.) 2) For political reasons. If "The Bar" is set too high to make a difference in 4 years, lower "The Bar" so that you can make a difference in 4 years. Simple politics in action. McCain would have ended up doing it as well. (Once again, neither an endoresement nor condemnation)
So, where am I going with all of this? Well, not me, the Markets. The Markets are on their way to 4 (4000 on the Dow, 400 on the S&P) by summer of 2010. Some of you are saying, "What the h@## are you talking about?!?! There is no way!" That is what I see in my technical analysis. I think I am supported by the overall macro-economic picture, as well.
Here is the short of it (You have probably heard it a thousand times already, but I will make this as brief as I can.) WE SPENT MONEY WE DIDN'T HAVE. Ok, that's it. That is why we are going to Hell in a handbasket carried by a blind man with a cane. The bill has come due, and we have to pay. Since we can't afford it, we are all going to be doing dishes for a while to pay for it. Has to happen. Sorry.
So, I have to send off some e-mails to see if I can use some pictures from other websites, and also make sure its ok to link to some other sites that I follow. Hopefully, I will have more for you tomorrow.
Well, lets get to it.
Markets closed up today. Not on great volume, but better than last week's. Tomorrow should be a busy day, I am expecting at least 50% average volume, most likely more. Tomorrow is the last day of the tax year. People are going to have to take their losses, or suck them up for next year. Also, today was the last day of Hanukkah. So, people of the Jewish persuasion are more likely to participate in the Markets. My thoughts are that tomorrow will end up flat to up decent. I am thinking another 15 on the S&P and about 120 on the Dow. My reasoning is that we are going for the 9000 on the Dow and the 918 on the S&P. We need to get over those hurdles by the 4th if we want to see a nice bounce in the Markets for the beginning of the year.
I have had the thought, and played my positions, to the idea that the Markets are going for at least 10 (10k on Dow, 1000 on S&P) with about a 10% margin of error to the upside. I am also playing the idea that the Market will resume its downward march either shortly after we hit that projected top and/or late Feburary to early March. This is when I think that President Obama is going to "clean out the closet" on the American economy.
Basically, my thinking is that Obama is going to tell people: "The economy is not at all in the condition that you think. It is much, much worse." He will do this for 2 reasons. 1) I think that the economy IS in fact worse than the government has let on (Disclaimer: This is a government thing, not some veiled slam on W. The government lies to us. Sorry, the government is "found to have accidentally misinformed us". This is far beyond party lines. They all do it, but that is a whole different blog.) 2) For political reasons. If "The Bar" is set too high to make a difference in 4 years, lower "The Bar" so that you can make a difference in 4 years. Simple politics in action. McCain would have ended up doing it as well. (Once again, neither an endoresement nor condemnation)
So, where am I going with all of this? Well, not me, the Markets. The Markets are on their way to 4 (4000 on the Dow, 400 on the S&P) by summer of 2010. Some of you are saying, "What the h@## are you talking about?!?! There is no way!" That is what I see in my technical analysis. I think I am supported by the overall macro-economic picture, as well.
Here is the short of it (You have probably heard it a thousand times already, but I will make this as brief as I can.) WE SPENT MONEY WE DIDN'T HAVE. Ok, that's it. That is why we are going to Hell in a handbasket carried by a blind man with a cane. The bill has come due, and we have to pay. Since we can't afford it, we are all going to be doing dishes for a while to pay for it. Has to happen. Sorry.
So, I have to send off some e-mails to see if I can use some pictures from other websites, and also make sure its ok to link to some other sites that I follow. Hopefully, I will have more for you tomorrow.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
